Mathematical model for cancer prevalence and cancer mortality

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Publikace nespadá pod Filozofickou fakultu, ale pod Přírodovědeckou fakultu. Oficiální stránka publikace je na webu muni.cz.
Název česky Matematický model šíření rakoviny a úmrtnosti na rakovinu
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KALAS Josef NOVOTNÝ Jan MICHÁLEK Jaroslav NAKONECHNY Oleksandr

Rok publikování 2013
Druh Článek v odborném periodiku
Časopis / Zdroj Taurida Journal of Computer Science Theory and Mathematics
Fakulta / Pracoviště MU

Přírodovědecká fakulta

Citace
www http://tvim.info/files/tvim_2013_2.pdf
Obor Obecná matematika
Klíčová slova Deterministic model; differential equations; asymptotic properties; cancer prevalence and mortality in a population; short-term prediction; long-term prediction; regression model.
Popis The first part of the paper designs a deterministic model to describe cancer prevalence and mortality in a population. Next the asymptotic properties of the model are investigated. In the second part, the model is applied to real-world data. For selected model data, a numerical solution is found to the differential equations describing the model, a long-term prediction is made with its results compared with those of predictions made by regression analysis, which are often used to model the prevalence and mortality in the present literature. It is shown that, although for short-term predictions (up to 10 years) both approaches are nearly equivalent, there is a major difference between them if a longer-term prediction is made and finding a reliable prediction for a period longer than 10 years based on short time series seems to be unlikely.
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